What the federal IDR numbers say.
Win rates, volume, concentration and the spread between IDR entities, compiled from CMS and from research on the CMS public-use files. Our own quarterly computation from the raw files will replace this edition.
Key figures
Providers win most disputes. Who decides still matters.
Provider win rate in federal IDR1
Provider win rate by IDR entity7
Range across entities and years.
80 points between the lowest and highest. The entity assigned to a dispute matters.
Share of disputes filed by the largest initiating parties
What this edition is, and is not.
Every figure comes from the source cited next to it. We have not recomputed them. Sources measure slightly different things: some count disputes, some count resolved disputes; some count all initiating parties, most of which are providers. We report each as its source states it.
The next edition will be computed from the CMS federal IDR public-use files directly: win rates by IDR entity, specialty and state, and award-to-QPA ratios by service. Ask to be told when it is out.
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Sources
- 1McGough, Kurani and Long, "The performance of the federal independent dispute resolution process through mid-2024," Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker, May 29, 2025. Providers prevailed in 68% of disputes in Q1 2023 and 85% in Q1 2024; 80% across 2023 to mid-2024. Source
- 7Watts and Hoadley, "No Surprises Act arbitrators vary significantly in their decision making patterns," Georgetown CHIR, July 10, 2025: provider win rates ranged from 19% to 99% across IDR entities and years (2022 to mid-2024). Source
- 8CMS, Federal IDR supplemental background, July to December 2024: 853,374 disputes initiated; the top ten initiating parties filed about 71% of them. Source